双语·智库 | 到2030年：连专家都无法预测的4件事 与人类命运息息相关

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本期为第八期，智库文章选自非官方国际性机构世界经济论坛（World Economic Forum）官网，文章内容有删节。

Life in 2030: these are the 4 things experts can't predict

2030年的生活：专家无法预测的4件事

Alvin Toffler predicted a future in his 1970 bestseller Future Shock that looks much like today’s reality. He anticipated the rise of the internet, the sharing economy, companies built on “adhocracy” rather than centralized bureaucracy, and the broader social confusions and concerns about technology. He foresaw that the evolving relationship between people and technology would shape how societies and economies develop.

阿尔文·托夫勒在其1970年的畅销书《未来的冲击》中预测了未来，如今的现实和他的预测非常相像。他预见到互联网的崛起、共享经济、更为灵活而非官僚集权制的公司建立模式，以及人们对技术的普遍困惑和担忧。他预见到人与技术之间不断演变的关系将塑造社会和经济发展的方式。

This is also the focus of much of the World Economic Forum's work. It explores how technology advances and how relevant challenges will be addressed by the year 2030. Here are some of the uncertainties that policy-makers, corporate executives, and civil society actors face as they move into this new world.

这也是世界经济论坛大部分工作的重点。它探讨了技术如何进步以及相关挑战如何在2030年之前得到解决。以下是一些决策者、企业高管和民间社会行为主体在进入这个新世界时面临的一些问题。

Can we master greater connectivity?

我们能否掌握更大的互联互通？

Many are convinced that the internet will be everywhere - or nearly everywhere - in the next generation. It will be "on" most things and built into many objects and environments. Experts claim that the internet will fade into the background, becoming like electricity - less visible but deeply embedded in human endeavors. Even those without high levels of literacy will interact with digital material and apps using their voice, igniting an unprecedented expansion of knowledge and learning.

很多人都相信互联网将在我们的下一代生活中无处不在——或者说几乎无处不在。它将融于大多数事物上，并构建到许多对象和环境中。专家声称，互联网将逐渐融于生活背景中，就像电一样，不那么显眼却深植于人类活动中。即使那些没有高水平读写能力的人也能用自己的声音与数码素材和应用程序互动，激发知识和学习的空前扩展。

▲1970年畅销书《未来的冲击》作者阿尔文·托夫勒  （图片来源：路透社）

This explosion of connectivity brings new possibilities, but also economic and social vulnerabilities. The level of coordination and coding required to stitch the Internet of Things together is orders of magnitude more complicated than any historical endeavour yet. It is likely that things will break and no one will know how to fix them. Bad actors will be able to achieve societal disruptions at scale and from afar. Consequently, we are faced with some hard, costly choices. How much redundancy should these complex systems have? How will they be defended and by whom?

这种连通性的爆炸式增长带来了新的可能性，但同时也带来了经济和社会的脆弱性。整合物联网所需的协调和编码水平比解决历史上的任何问题都要复杂得多。就像一些物品会损坏，但是没人知道如何修复。坏人还能借此制造大规模和长远的社会混乱。因此，我们正面临着一些艰难的、可能付出高昂代价的选择。这些复杂系统需要多少冗余技术？它们将由谁、以何种方式捍卫？

Will we create more meaningful work?

我们会创造更有意义的工作吗？

There is no consensus about whether the forces unleashed by technology destroy more jobs than they create.

技术所释放的力量是否摧毁而非创造了更多的工作，对于这一点，人们还未达成共识。

How the ecosystem of education and skills-training will adapt is extremely relevant. Colleges, community colleges and trade schools are in the early stages of adjusting to a disruption in their business model that could rival the challenges already faced by the media and music industry. Many institutions now embrace teaching through online video or hybrid courses which provide both online and classroom experiences. These will all be monitored by artificial intelligence systems that assess student performance and the sufficiency of the course. Employees are also self-training with online material.

教育和技能训练的生态系统会如何适应技术发展是一个关系重大的问题。大学、社区学院和贸易学校正处于调整其商业模式适应这种颠覆的早期阶段，这可能与媒体和音乐产业已经面临的挑战不相上下。许多机构现在都采用在线视频或混合课程教学，提供在线和课堂双重体验。所有这些流程都将由人工智能系统监控，从而评估学生的表现以及课程的充实度。员工也是利用在线材料进行自我培训。

Will this adaptation be sufficient to the task? It depends on the talents rewarded by the next economy. When Pew Research Center queried experts, a considerable number focused on how the best education programmes would be those teaching how to be a lifelong learner. Some say alternative credential systems will arise to assess the new skills people acquire.

对于这项工作来说，是否做到这样就足够能适应新技术的发展了？这取决于从下一轮经济中获益的人才。在皮尤研究中心询问专家时，相当多的人关注的是最好的教育方案如何能够教人成为一名终身学习者。有人说，未来将出现新的认证系统来评估人们获得的新技能。

The experts also discussed specific human talents which they doubt machines and automation will be able to duplicate for some time. These include social and emotional intelligence, creativity, collaborative activity, abstract and systems thinking, complex communication skills, and the ability to thrive in diverse environments. It is unclear whether American schools and universities can re-orient to emphasizing these non-technical skills.

专家还讨论道，他们怀疑有朝一日机器和自动化将能够复制某些特殊人才，包括社会和情绪智力、创造力、协作活动、抽象和系统思维、复杂的沟通技巧以及在不同环境中成长的能力。目前还不清楚美国的学校和大学能否重新定位，重视这些非技术性技能。

Can trust and truth be revived?

信任和真理能复活吗？

Trust is a social, economic and political binding agent. A vast research literature on trust and social capital documents the connections between trust and well-being, collective problem solving, economic development and social cohesion. Trust is the lifeblood of friendship and care-giving. When trust is absent, all kinds of societal woes unfold, including violence, chaos and paralysing risk-aversion.

信任是一种社会、经济和政治粘合剂。信任和社会资本方面的大量研究文献都是关于信任和幸福、集体问题解决、经济发展、社会凝聚力之间的联系。信任是友谊和奉献的命脉。当信任缺失时，暴力、混乱和风险规避麻痹等各种社会灾难都会出现。

There is considerable concern that the way people use the internet is degrading trust. The fate of trust and truth is up for grabs. On one hand, many worry that the fake news ecosystem preys on deep human instincts. Preferences for convenience, comfort, and information that reinforces their views make people vulnerable to the ways new tech tools can identify, target and manipulate them. On the other hand, humans have a decent track record of confronting problems caused by communications revolutions. There are new ways to fight back, at internet speed.

人们使用互联网的方式让信任变得越来越少，由此引发诸多担忧，信任与真理正面临着严峻考验。一方面，很多人担心虚假新闻成风会损害人之本性。人们偏好便利、舒适和能够印证自己看法的信息，这使得他们面对新科技工具的识别、定向与操控时毫无招架之力。另一方面，人类在应对通信变革带来的问题上有迹可循，能以互联网的速度找到回击的新办法。

图片来源：Rawpixel.com

How much can social and organizational innovation alleviate new problems?

社会与组织创新能在多大程度上缓解新出现的问题？

With so much upheaval, people, groups and organizations will be forced to adjust. Some primary aspects of collective action and power are already changing as social networks become a societal force. These networks are used for both knowledge-sharing and mobilizing others to action. There are new ways for people to collaborate to solve problems. Moreover, there are a growing number of group structures to address problems, from micro-niche issues to macro-global affairs such as climate change and pandemics.

面对众多剧变，无论组织还是个人，都必须做出调整。随着社交网络变成一种社会力量，集体行动和群体势力的一些基本方面正在发生变化，这些网络被用来分享知识，同时调动他人积极参与。人们会采用新的方式来合作解决问题，此外，可以解决问题的团体机构越来越多，小到鸡毛蒜皮的琐事，大到气候变化、流行病之类的宏观全球性问题。

New laws and court battles are inevitable and are likely to address questions such as: Who owns what information? Who can use and profit from information? When something goes wrong with an information-processing system (say, a self-driving car propels itself off a bridge), who is responsible? Where is the right place to draw the line between data capture - or surveillance - and privacy? What kinds of personal information can be legitimately considered when assessing someone’s employment, creditworthiness or insurance status? Who oversees the algorithms that decide what happens in society?

新法规和法庭博弈在所难免，可解决的问题包括：谁拥有怎样的信息？谁能使用信息并从中获利？信息处理系统出现差错时（比如，一辆自动驾驶汽车驶离桥梁坠下），该由谁负责？如何确定数据获取或监测与隐私之间的界限？评估一个人的求职信息、信用可靠度或保险状况时，哪些类型的个人信息可以合法使用？谁监督决定社会事件的算法？

There is a long road ahead to 2030. There is a lot of opportunity to make the uncertain more certain.

到2030年还有漫长的路要走，还有很多机会让模糊的事物变得更加清晰。

作者

▲Lee Rainie

皮尤研究中心互联网与技术研究负责人

编译：Yee君

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